Political instability in Armenia may lead to war in Karabakh - Maxim Shepovalenko - EXCLUSIVE

2018/05/1526371446.jpg
Read: 1014     16:02     15 May 2018    

New Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan’s attitude towards the settlement of Karabakh issue shows that Yerevan is not ready for a constructive dialogue as before and this excludes the possibility of positive steps in this direction. Experts believe that populist Pashinyan, in order to save his reputation, can provoke aggravation of the situation by achieving the recognition of the independence of the “so-called regime” on a unilateral basis. In this case, Baku will not have another choice but to make Armenia's military-political leadership obey it by all means. In this regard, the latest statement of Azerbaijani Defence Minister, Colonel General Zakir Hasanov that the irresponsible statements of Armenia's new prime minister are inadmissible and the Azerbaijani Army is fully prepared for large-scale combat operations seems not accidental.


Maxim Shepovalenko, Deputy Director at the Russian Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies told Ordu.az the aforesaid.

According to Shepovalenko, in case that the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh further aggravates in  military-political format in connection with the political instability in Armenia, the April fights of 2016 will likely repeat.

“However, we still see those elements, including acting decisively to achieve decisive goals, mobility disorder, isolation of the area of combat activities for operational deployment and re-grouping  of opponent forces, complex use of special operations forces, mountain and mechanized infantry troops, long-range high-precision (large-scale and reactive) artillery, wandering ammunition and aviation (attackers, transport-combat helicopters),” said the expert.

“The Azerbaijani Army can inflict the main strike from the northern part of the contact line and anti-tank complexes, missile and artillery troops (remote artillery and reactive systems), army and front (operational tactical) aviation can be used. Here many things will depend on the ability of the Azerbaijani Army to create full-scale intelligence-firing contours,” said Shepovalenko.

According to the deputy director, the Azerbaijani Army can inflict another strike from the plains of the southern sector where it can take advantage of the superiority of armored tanks and self-propelled artillery. Here, the layout of the opponent's fire prevention complexes will tell about organization of its operational structure.

“One of the principal moments is the efficient superiority of the Azerbaijani Army over the opponent’s air defence. Otherwise, this will exclude the operation of the aircraft and make the realization of the entire plan difficult.

Regardless of the outcome of the operations, the Azerbaijani side should continue its systematic work to improve the transport and engineering infrastructure in the regions near the battlefield,” Shepovalenko stressed.

Banu Salmanli

Sabina Hasanova 



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Political instability in Armenia may lead to war in Karabakh - Maxim Shepovalenko - EXCLUSIVE

2018/05/1526371446.jpg
Read: 1015     16:02     15 May 2018    

New Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan’s attitude towards the settlement of Karabakh issue shows that Yerevan is not ready for a constructive dialogue as before and this excludes the possibility of positive steps in this direction. Experts believe that populist Pashinyan, in order to save his reputation, can provoke aggravation of the situation by achieving the recognition of the independence of the “so-called regime” on a unilateral basis. In this case, Baku will not have another choice but to make Armenia's military-political leadership obey it by all means. In this regard, the latest statement of Azerbaijani Defence Minister, Colonel General Zakir Hasanov that the irresponsible statements of Armenia's new prime minister are inadmissible and the Azerbaijani Army is fully prepared for large-scale combat operations seems not accidental.


Maxim Shepovalenko, Deputy Director at the Russian Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies told Ordu.az the aforesaid.

According to Shepovalenko, in case that the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh further aggravates in  military-political format in connection with the political instability in Armenia, the April fights of 2016 will likely repeat.

“However, we still see those elements, including acting decisively to achieve decisive goals, mobility disorder, isolation of the area of combat activities for operational deployment and re-grouping  of opponent forces, complex use of special operations forces, mountain and mechanized infantry troops, long-range high-precision (large-scale and reactive) artillery, wandering ammunition and aviation (attackers, transport-combat helicopters),” said the expert.

“The Azerbaijani Army can inflict the main strike from the northern part of the contact line and anti-tank complexes, missile and artillery troops (remote artillery and reactive systems), army and front (operational tactical) aviation can be used. Here many things will depend on the ability of the Azerbaijani Army to create full-scale intelligence-firing contours,” said Shepovalenko.

According to the deputy director, the Azerbaijani Army can inflict another strike from the plains of the southern sector where it can take advantage of the superiority of armored tanks and self-propelled artillery. Here, the layout of the opponent's fire prevention complexes will tell about organization of its operational structure.

“One of the principal moments is the efficient superiority of the Azerbaijani Army over the opponent’s air defence. Otherwise, this will exclude the operation of the aircraft and make the realization of the entire plan difficult.

Regardless of the outcome of the operations, the Azerbaijani side should continue its systematic work to improve the transport and engineering infrastructure in the regions near the battlefield,” Shepovalenko stressed.

Banu Salmanli

Sabina Hasanova 



Tags: