NATO's plans for Georgia and sanctions, sanctions, sanctions    

2018/08/1533896362.jpg
Read: 452     18:30     10 August 2018    

The new US sanctions announced earlier this week may slow down Russia’s economic growth by around 1-1.5 percentage points, restricting annual GDP growth to 1% at best instead of the planned 2%, as estimated by Alexander Knobel, Head of the International Trade Department at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Vedomosti writes.

 


Restrictions boost economic costs, making flights, dealmaking and imports more expensive, Alfa-Bank’s Chief Economist Natalia Orlova notes, adding that the experience of other countries shows that sanctions slow down GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points per year on average. However, since Russia is mainly facing financial restrictions, the country’s GDP is unlikely to lose more than 50 base points, she adds.

Knobel does not expect Russian citizens to experience significant inflation spikes and drops in revenues, though the living standard will continue declining, he says. Natalia Akindinova, Director of the Center of Development at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the new wave of sanctions will further wrap up capital flows, though she sees no risks for the budget, as Russia next to no external borrowings, while the weakening of the national currency adds revenues, the newspaper writes. She notes though that there are risks for private investments. Knobel says that foreign companies will bear risks in any cooperation with the Russian economy, while the most threatening proposal is to restrict dollar-denominated transactions for state-held banks.

Meanwhile, a consensus forecast of analysts of top Russian banks conducted by Izvestia daily says that GDP growth will equal 1.6% in 2018, while inflation will amount to 3.5%. The consumer sector is the main contributor to the Russian economic growth, the paper says. The risk of new sanctions has been particularly mentioned as a major constraining factor.

Earlier reports said that the Washington administration announced sanctions to be imposed on Russia as of August 22 over Moscow’s alleged involvement in the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the UK, on March 4. According to the US Department of State, the US authorities are going to decide on unveiling the second package of sanctions against Moscow in 90 days’ time depending on whether it fulfills a number of conditions.

 

TASS



Tags:



News Line

NATO's plans for Georgia and sanctions, sanctions, sanctions    

2018/08/1533896362.jpg
Read: 453     18:30     10 August 2018    

The new US sanctions announced earlier this week may slow down Russia’s economic growth by around 1-1.5 percentage points, restricting annual GDP growth to 1% at best instead of the planned 2%, as estimated by Alexander Knobel, Head of the International Trade Department at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Vedomosti writes.

 


Restrictions boost economic costs, making flights, dealmaking and imports more expensive, Alfa-Bank’s Chief Economist Natalia Orlova notes, adding that the experience of other countries shows that sanctions slow down GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points per year on average. However, since Russia is mainly facing financial restrictions, the country’s GDP is unlikely to lose more than 50 base points, she adds.

Knobel does not expect Russian citizens to experience significant inflation spikes and drops in revenues, though the living standard will continue declining, he says. Natalia Akindinova, Director of the Center of Development at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the new wave of sanctions will further wrap up capital flows, though she sees no risks for the budget, as Russia next to no external borrowings, while the weakening of the national currency adds revenues, the newspaper writes. She notes though that there are risks for private investments. Knobel says that foreign companies will bear risks in any cooperation with the Russian economy, while the most threatening proposal is to restrict dollar-denominated transactions for state-held banks.

Meanwhile, a consensus forecast of analysts of top Russian banks conducted by Izvestia daily says that GDP growth will equal 1.6% in 2018, while inflation will amount to 3.5%. The consumer sector is the main contributor to the Russian economic growth, the paper says. The risk of new sanctions has been particularly mentioned as a major constraining factor.

Earlier reports said that the Washington administration announced sanctions to be imposed on Russia as of August 22 over Moscow’s alleged involvement in the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the UK, on March 4. According to the US Department of State, the US authorities are going to decide on unveiling the second package of sanctions against Moscow in 90 days’ time depending on whether it fulfills a number of conditions.

 

TASS



Tags: